Webinar by Thilo Kroeger and Michael Kogler, German Council of Economic Experts
July 15, 2025, 11-12 a.m.
Join by using the following link: https://oenb.webex.com/oenb/j.php?MTID=m7e9954523d6fdf0cf1da2f9c0d5e1e13
Abstract: The German economy has been experiencing structural change – a shift in economic activity from manufacturing to services - although the share of manufacturing in gross value added has remained at a higher level than in other advanced economies since the 1990s. This is primarily a result of historical specialization and locational advantages. In the coming years, however, structural change will likely accelerate, driven by changes in international trade relations, decarbonization, digitalization and AI, as well as demographic ageing. The impact of structural change especially on employment is heterogeneous across regions: While metropolitan areas and economically strong rural regions benefit from positive agglomeration effects, disadvantaged regions (e.g., in East Germany) will likely face declining employment. In addition, regions that have been economically successful with a stable industry composition will also be affected by structural change, in particular, if they have specialized in knowledge-intensive manufacturing industries. Policy options to mitigate regional adjustment frictions and to prevent structural unemployment include providing suitable and attractive training opportunities for affected workers, investing in infrastructure and promoting technological progress with R&D investments.
Year of publication: 2025
